Population Policy Passed

Jersey's first 'Common Population Policy' has been approved by the States, despite one former Minister calling the debate 'a waste of time'.

The government says the aim should be to achieve a stable population and reduce reliance on inward migration.

Ministers say a lack of robust data is a problem - and there should be enough, with the help of a new IT system, to make a meaningful forecast by 2025.

The policy was criticised by Scrutiny, who said there were no tangible actions.

The panel called the four-year wait for making a meaningful forecast 'unacceptable'.

Deputy Rowland Huelin said criticism of putting off decision-making is completely unfounded.

"This policy lists 44 tangible actions identified for 2022 and a wide range of proposed areas for the next Council of Ministers to take forward.

We are already taking action while continuing to do so this year, next year, and every year.

Members need to be very clear that any actions we might take, with the aim of reducing net migration, are going to have consequences for the island.

Putting it bluntly, if we don't take steps to create the robust framework that we need, and if we don't encourage the growth of a sustainable workforce, and if we don't have the controls in place to respond flexibly to current challenges, we will upset the balance between the economy, the community and the environment."

Actions proposed for 2022 include:

• Publishing the full results of the 2021 census.
• Introducing a monthly Combined Employer Return.
• Creating a new IT system to manage applications under the Control of Housing and Work Law to provide monthly reports on the number of migrant workers employed across different sectors of the economy and provide data to track migrants over time.

The policy will be reviewed annually within every Government Plan process from 2023 onwards.

The population at the end of 2019 was estimated to be 107,800.

The draft Bridging Island Plan is predicting a population increase of around 800+ people a year.

The government says consideration was given to adopting a net-zero inward migration policy.

That was one of the requirements of a successful proposition put forward by Deputy Jess Perchard in November 2020.

However, the government says it's not realistic to set a timetable or make any predictions at the moment because of the absence of up-to-date and detailed data on migration issues.

"However, assuming successful adoption of planned IT systems and subsequent collection and analysis of data, the government should be in a position to forecast the date on which the Island will be able to reach a stable population position, towards the end of the next electoral cycle.

Progress towards achieving this target date will be reviewed by each subsequent Council of Ministers.

For the same reason that this first policy does not include any numeric targets or overall population levels, it is also premature to comment on the implications of a net-zero policy. Given the immaturity of data systems today, it would not be possible to assess adherence to a net zero policy, if this were to be introduced.

It would therefore be irresponsible to pursue such a policy in the short term in the absence of relevant data as the likely consequences could not be predicted. As such, Ministers do not support the introduction of a net-zero inward migration policy at this time. This will, however, be kept under review."

Deputy Perchard's proposition in 2020 also demanded:

• An explicit prediction of the population size for 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060 and 2070
• All the infrastructure projects needed every ten years - such as the number of new schools, affordable homes, hospital facilities, and required road maintenance
• Any additional funding needed every ten years for Income Support, pensions, and Long-Term Care benefits.
• A public consultation on what population size islanders deem suitable. That consultation is estimated to cost between £3,000 and £5,000

Deputy Perchard says the consultation has been done, but the rest was lacking.

"We voted against the idea of having an interim policy, a stake in the ground, a vision but without data. Over a year later, we have something that's been delivered that is described in exactly the same language, word for word.

This, for me alone, is a red line. I can't support such a brazen display of someone sticking to what they wanted to do, despite an overwhelming majority of this assembly saying we don't want that, we want more.

We voted against the government's attempt to bring an interim policy that didn't have the data. We voted in favour of something more robust and therefore, as an assembly, we expected appropriate resources to be re-distributed if needed to achieve what we voted for.

That has not been done."

Reform Jersey was very critical of the proposal.

Deputy Rob Ward described it as 'a collection of phrases, graphics and something referred to do as data and generic ideas that has no actual real notion of implementation behind it.'

Party colleague Senator Sam Mezec called the debate 'a waste of time' and congratulated Deputy Huelin on bringing forward a 120-page report 'which manages to say absolutely nothing.'

"It has no practical effect, it changes nothing on the ground, no rules are changed, no targets are set, and no new instructions to government officers are given as a result of this.

The proposition actually does nothing except endorse work that the government is already doing anyway to spend tens of millions of pounds on IT systems to do things that they've been promising for years, but never seem to deliver anything out of, except an inflated budget every year."

The States has passed P.166 ‘Common Population Policy’. This will be a minor footnote in history, as it has no practical effect in any way at all. A vacuous proposition and sadly a waste of several hours of States time.

— Senator Sam Mézec (@SamMezecJsy) February 9, 2022

Assistant Economic Development Minister Deputy Kirsten Morel voted in support of the proposition and hit back at critics of it.

He says he isn't enormously happy with the policy, but the reason for that is that nothing has been done in the last 20 years to put this government in a position to control the population.

"I've heard lots of States members complain about this. What I found fascinating is I haven't heard any single States member, whether they're a member of a party or whether they're an independent, I haven't heard one provide a single solution. Not one.

I've heard moaning, I've heard complaining, I've heard no solutions. I think that in itself speaks volumes because they are saying there are no solutions in this population policy, yet they themselves have come up with no solutions because they don't have any.

We don't know the population of Jersey today. One reason for that is because previous governments, including this one, have not brought in a monthly population data system. I don't know why that hasn't happened but if we're taking the year 2000 as day zero, for instance, that's 22 years of no government bringing in a better system of knowing the size of our population on a regular basis.

That is a lot of people, a lot of States members who are to blame for not bringing in such a system to enable us to be beyond step one today."

Concluding the debate, Deputy Huelin says if they had the policies and data in place 15 years ago, they would have foreseen the trends in the housing market, but instead, 'it smacks them in the face and they're 'like rabbits in the headlights.'

"I really, really hope that whoever takes over my role after June, if it's not for me, I say beware of what you wish for if you vote against this and end up with this particular role because it is a tough challenge.

That person will have to stand by their beliefs in order to drive it through for the benefit of everybody in this island, not for the horseplay that can potentially happen in this assembly.

It's an inaugural population policy, it's a start, it's a great start, it's a start that the island has been waiting for."

It was approved by 26 votes to 17.