Risk of 'very strong' El Nino raising global temperatures, scientists warn

Forecasters say there is a risk of a "very strong" El Nino, which typically leads to higher global temperatures and drought in some areas, but heavy rainfall in others.

The Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said El Nino conditions have been developing over ​the past month and it predicts they will intensify into the winter over the Northern Hemisphere.

Its latest assessment, released on Thursday, added that there is a 63% chance of a "very strong" El Nino between November and January that would rank among the largest El Nino events since modern-day records going back to 1950.

Meteorologists warned it could equal or exceed a powerful event in 1997 to 1998, which resulted in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters around the globe.

Met Office climate spokesman Grahame Madge said El Nino will be a "significant event" and "possibly one of the strongest we've had in recent decades".

The Met Office said it was "highly likely" El Nino will cause a temporary spike in global annual temperature with the residual heat "potentially making next year the hottest in the global series from 1850".

El Nino typically takes place irregularly every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to 12 months.

The natural phenomenon describes the unusual warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is associated with widespread changes in the climate.

It is part of a larger, irregular climate cycle called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which includes a cooling phase, La Nina, and a neutral phase, researchers said.

It increases the risk of drier conditions in parts of Indonesia, Australia, India and central and equatorial South America, while wetter conditions are likely in some other regions of South America and the southern United States.

A warming in the Pacific alters atmospheric circulation, including the position of the jet stream and the distribution of tropical rainfall - and these changes can shift storm tracks and influence temperature and rainfall thousands of miles away.

The most recent El Nino in 2023-24 contributed to "exceptionally high global temperatures", which combined with climate change helped "amplify global heat, helping to push temperatures to record levels", according to the UK-based National Centre for Atmospheric Science.

"It can change weather patterns worldwide, driving extremes in different regions and in different seasons," it added.

Typical impacts include suppressing rainfall over most tropical land, exacerbating heatwaves in the tropics, but also triggering severe flooding in parts of the Americas, southern Europe and East Africa.

Impact 'sudden and chaotic'

El Nino could place UK food imports under further pressure from climate impacts with farmers producing supermarket staples in poorer nations increasingly unable to work because of heat stress.

Agricultural workers who produce supermarket staples such as rice, coffee, tea and chocolate face increasingly difficult working conditions as climate change drives record-breaking global temperatures, according to an analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

ENSO events can have "sudden and chaotic" impacts from "extreme heat to flooding and drought", according to Graeme Swindles, professor of physical geography at Queen's University Belfast.

"When these powerful natural climate oscillations combine with the rapid pace of human‑driven warming, the impacts can be sudden, chaotic and severe - from extreme heat to flooding and drought," he said.

Referring to the impact on Northern Europe, specifically Northern Ireland, he said El Nino "can shift the position and strength of the Atlantic jet stream" potentially leading to "milder, wetter winters and potentially greater flood risk".

El Nino could hit crops

"El Nino is likely to have a negative ​impact on crop yields in Southeast Asia and ⁠India, where El Nino is ⁠typically
associated with below-normal rainfall," said Kyle Tapley, enterprise sales executive at Vaisala Xweather's WeatherDesk.

The ‌monsoon delivers nearly 70% of India's rainfall and is vital for the agricultural sector.

Below-normal rainfall could mean smaller harvests of crops such as rice, cotton and soybeans, while also weighing on winter crops.

Meanwhile, Indonesian rice farmers are racing to get ahead of the ⁠usual planting schedule as they battle the ​threat of a lengthy dry spell this year.

Malaysia's ​economic minister warned that El Nino could cause crop ​yields to fall by an average of between 8% and ⁠10% this year.

Read more from Sky News:
Met Office issues heatwave warning
Climate scientists 'wrong', says Trump
2025 was planet's third hottest on record

US predicts fewer hurricanes

US forecasters are also predicting El Nino will influence the hurricane season, which runs 1 June to 30 November.

The NOAA is predicting a "below-normal" total of eight to 14 named storms, an average season has 14.

In a statement the agency said that, while there is still some uncertainty, El Nino conditions tend to support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.

(c) Sky News 2026: Risk of 'very strong' El Nino raising global temperatures, scientists warn