Growing unease over UK's stuttering efforts to rearm

The UK could yet unveil all – or parts – of a long-delayed investment plan for defence by Friday, but a disagreement on funding is still unresolved, it is understood.

The protracted absence of the government's "defence investment plan", which is already more than six months late, has even prompted some people to ask whether a sweeping review of defence that was released last year might now need a "refresh".

This is not an idea that is under official consideration – as far as I can tell.

But the mere fact the words "strategic defence review refresh" are being speculated in the margins is a sign of growing unease about what is happening with the UK's stuttering efforts to rearm at a time of increased threats.

Sir Keir Starmer, addressing a major security conference in Munich in February, talked about the need for Britain and its European allies to strengthen their militaries.

"We must build our hard power, because that is the currency of the age," he said.

But the failure by his government since then to finalise its defence investment blueprint means much of the UK's defence industry – vital for any war effort – is waiting in limbo.

In an indication of disarray behind the scenes, government and industry officials had been preparing for the investment plan to come out this Thursday.

That date will almost certainly now slide by at least 24 hours – quite possibly longer – after the latest offer of additional money from the Treasury fell too far short of what the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is looking for.

The case for the defence

As part of the discussions, there is thought to be a desire from the defence industry for the government to commit to a clear timeline for increasing military spending to 3% of GDP from around 2.3% at present.

Such a move would guarantee tens of billions of pounds in extra funding within a more certain timeframe than the current pledge, which is for the uplift merely to happen at some unspecified point during the next parliament.

There is also an ambition for a clearer pathway to meet an ultimate goal to boost defence expenditure to a new baseline of 3.5% of GDP that was set last year by all NATO allies.

Sir Keir has so far pledged to achieve this by 2035.

But that is the latest possible date by which the alliance has said the target could be met and some allies are moving much faster, leaving the UK in the slow lane even though it prides itself as being a leading member of NATO.

With or without a firm date for at least the 3% target to be reached, the MoD needs to accept what the Treasury is offering in terms of extra funding before the defence investment plan can be finalised.

As of Tuesday evening, it's thought this had not happened.

But there still appears to be a desire for the prime minister to make an announcement on the investment plan on Friday, even though parliament will not be sitting.

Here's what could happen

One possibility is that Sir Keir is able to say it is finished, give some topline figures and talk about investment in priority programmes such as a multi-billion-pound agreement with Japan and Italy to develop the next generation of highly sophisticated fast jets.

That could then be followed by the full document being published next week.

Or else, the whole thing is yet again delayed, though the prime minister has said it will be released before the next NATO summit on 7-8 July.

The proposed settlement for additional defence investment, which is thought to range from an extra £12bn to £18bn over four years, is still less than what the MoD wants, but the upper end is probably just about manageable.

However, the Treasury is thought to have gone back to defence with an offer at the lower end. If that is the final deal, it could mean more defence cuts, while efforts to rebuild the military would happen at an even slower pace.

How did it come to this?

Last June's Strategic Defence Review was meant to be the defining document on the armed forces of the Starmer government.

It set out the parlous state of the army, navy and air force following decades of underinvestment since the end of the Cold War.

The review then mapped out a plan for modernisation, transformation and rearmament, which could be accelerated should the government agree to spend more.

This body of work, led by Lord George Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary, should have been followed last autumn by the defence investment plan, which would explain how the vision would be funded.

It was always going to be a challenge because the Treasury's original spending envelope was never enough to avoid significant, further cuts to capabilities.

So began a protracted and at times tense negotiation between the MoD, the Treasury and Number 10 on what the new funding figures for the military should be.

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The decision for the prime minister has long been whether to go all-in and give a lot more to defence at the cost of other departments or to heed Treasury caution about the military's poor track record at spending its already sizeable budget.

Yet, months on, there is still no clarity, creating uncertainty for the entire defence community at a time when it should be preparing for the possibility of war.

Asked previously about the defence investment plan, an MoD spokesperson has said: "The defence investment plan will deliver the best kit into the hands of our armed forces. We are working hard to finalise it, and it will be published as soon as possible."

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