Drought Expected And Heatwave Possible

Jersey is likely to be in an official drought later this month and the island could experience a heatwave too.

Jersey Met is predicting that temperatures will build steadily throughout the coming days, with the weekend possibly reaching 30°C.

The maximum daily temperature has to exceed the average maximum temperature by 5°C for six consecutive days to meet the heatwave criteria.

We're expecting to record daily maximum temperatures that reach the heatwave criteria, however at this stage it is not certain whether these will be over the required consecutive six day period to make it an official heatwave.

— Jersey Met (@Jersey_Met) July 8, 2022

Forecasters are not expecting any rain over the next seven to ten days, so it's likely that the island will be in an official drought from Saturday 16 July.

So far this year, the island has recorded 25% less rainfall than average.

Droughts have been recorded 128 times in Jersey since rainfall records began at Maison St.Louis Observatory in 1894.

Looking forward there is currently very little chance of further rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days, and it’s highly likely we will move into a period of ‘Meteorological absolute drought’ on 16th July. 2/3

— Jersey Met (@Jersey_Met) July 8, 2022

A drought is defined as a period of 15 consecutive days with no measurable rainfall.

The heat is also affecting the temperature of the sea, which has remained above average throughout 2022.

If that continues until the end of the year, it will be the first time it happens.

Previously, the closest was in 2014 when the sea temperature was above average for 352 days of the year, with just a short period in August when it was slightly below.
Yesterday’s sea temperature of 17.4°C was more than 1°C above average for early July.

— Jersey Met (@Jersey_Met) July 8, 2022