Will Trump-style billionaire Andrej Babis return to power? What the Czech election means for Ukraine

Czechs head to the polls this Friday and Saturday in an election which could impact the country’s support for Ukraine.

Prime Minister Petr Fiala faces being voted out of office, with billionaire businessman Andrej Babis the current favourite to win.

Babis, the 71-year-old leader of right-wing opposition party ANO (Action for Dissatisfied Citizens), has been dubbed the "Czech Trump" due to his business empire and populist leanings.

The Slovak-born chemicals, farming and media tycoon has vowed that if he wins this weekend, he will stop sending military aid to Ukraine, insisting that instead funds should be redirected to support Czech citizens.

Babis previously served as prime minister from 2017 to 2021, when he suffered defeat to Fiala's centre-right SPOLU (Together) coalition, a pro-Ukraine administration.

Babis's party pledges to cap energy prices and oppose EU climate and migration pacts. Critics have warned that the plans could increase national debt, plunging the country into a deeper cost of living crisis.

Thousands of people protested in Prague's Old Town Square last weekend in a rally organised by anti-extremist movement A Million Moments for Democracy, where speakers warned the current populist surge could threaten the country's democratic direction.

But although the favourite to win, Babis could still face difficulties forming a government. He is forecast to win about one third of the vote, but 101 seats are required to form a working majority in the country's 200-seat Chamber of Deputies - the lower house of parliament.

So far opposition parties have ruled out working with ANO, meaning it could need to partner with smaller fringe parties to form a cabinet. These could include explicitly anti-NATO, anti-EU parties such as the hard-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and hard-left Stacilo.

In addition, President Petr Pavel, a retired NATO general, who appoints the prime minister and cabinet, has said he may refuse any ministers or cabinet members pushing anti-EU and anti-NATO agendas and defended Czechia sending military aid to Ukraine.

Who is Andrej Babis?

Babis, who boasts a $4.3bn (£3.2bn) net worth according to Forbes, co-founded the far-right Patriots for Europe faction in the European Parliament alongside Hungarian populist leader Viktor Orban.

His fortune is thanks to his ownership of agro-chemical business empire Agrofert, which includes more than 200 companies, and the purchase of key media outlets.

Babis often wears a red cap inscribed with "Strong Czechia", a nod to Donald Trump's MAGA movement and their iconic red baseball caps.

How could this election impact Ukraine?

Czechia has played a crucial role in raising funds among its NATO allies to send military equipment and munitions to Ukraine, now in its fourth year of war with Russia.

It uses contributions from NATO partner donations to buy ammunition and military equipment from the global market, sourced by private companies contracted by the Czech Ministry of Defence.

The scheme contributed 1.5 million artillery shells to Ukraine from more than a dozen countries in 2024 and expects to exceed 1.8 million donations by the year's end.

But Babis has called the scheme "overpriced" and "untransparent" and said the funds the Czech government contributes should be spent on domestic issues instead.

He also said management of the scheme should be handed over to NATO.

A poll by Czech research institute STEM from June found just under half of Czech respondents shared Babis's view, calling the amount of Czech military aid sent to Ukraine "too large".

But AMOS, the section of the Defence Ministry which contracts the initiative, rebuked Babis's claims about the scheme, stressing that the entire process is designed to be "as transparent as possible" for donors.

An AMOS spokesperson said: "The system of military-technical assistance to Ukraine has been thoroughly presented to our Western partners, who have expressed their clear and continuous support."

West to unrest - Will Babis really scrap the scheme?

Dr Sean Hanley, a Central and Eastern European politics expert at UCL, dismissed Babis's claims about ending Czech military aid for Ukraine as "political theatre".

He told Sky News: "I think it is a signal to say, 'I'm not pro-Ukrainian. I'm anti-Western leaning.' It will appeal to certain groups of voters.

"But Babis also said this [scheme] is something NATO should be doing. So, we have this big rhetoric, the headlines, but then the reality will be that Czechia steps back and plays a much lower profile role. And it will be discreetly repackaged as a NATO initiative.

"The more consequential thing is that Babis doesn't want to increase defence spending."

ANO did not respond to a request for comment.

When will we know the results?

Polls are now open and close on Saturday - with results expected to be announced in the evening.

Parties must obtain at least 5% of votes to win seats. Voting thresholds are higher for coalition parties.

This election marks the first to allow postal voting for citizens living abroad.

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